Reigning lightweight champ BJ Penn entered his main event battle against welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre looking to become the first man in UFC history to simultaneously hold titles in two weight classes. GSP never gave him the chance to make history, as he stopped Penn after four increasingly dominant rounds to retain his belt with a TKO victory and make a compelling case for being the pound for pound best fighter in mixed martial arts.

Both fighters had considerable fan support, with vocal, flag waving delegations from the Hawaiian Islands and Canada in evidence. During ring introductions, both men received enthusiastic cheers tempered with a few boos. After the opening horn sounded, however, the Penn backers had little to cheer about while the champions supports broke out in G-S-P chants on several occasions.

Boxing guru Freddy Roach recently praised Penn as the best technical puncher in MMA, but he had no opportunity to bring this weapon to bear as he had trouble finding the range from the outset. GSP mixed up his look perfectly, either staying just outside Penns range using his 6 reach advantage effectively or more often smothering his opponent on takedown attempts. St. Pierre was unable to complete any takedowns during the first round, but easily dictated the pace and style of the bout.

GSP began to assert his dominance in round two. He got a takedown early in the frame and began to mount a ground and pound assault while moving around in Penns legendary guard with frightening ease. At this point, it was apparent that GSPs superior strength and insane physical conditioning were going to figure prominently in the outcome of the fight.

The eventual outcome was foretold between rounds two and three, as the obviously exhausted Penn required a pep talk from his entourage that his fatigue was all in his head. Across the cage, GSP calmly sipped water and listened intently to trainer Greg Jacksons instructions looking for all the world that he could go 12 rounds if necessary.

Round three was similar to the previous one, with GSP taking his opponent to the mat with a decreasing level of resistance and mauling him with punches and elbows once he got there. His complete control over the BJJ black belt Penn was incredible, but hardly surprising given the way that GSP dominated four time NCAA All American wrestler Josh Koscheck on the ground during their matchup.

The fourth round was a wall to wall rout for the Canadian welterweight champion, who started by effectively trading strikes with Penn before taking him down once again and resuming his highly successful ground based attack. At this point with GSP moving around at ease and Penn mounting little resistance it was apparent that the challenger was physically spent. St. Pierre almost ended the fight on the ground, as referee Herb Dean repeatedly reminding Penn that he needs to fight back. Penn survived the round on instinct alone, moving around just enough to keep the referee from stopping the proceedings. After the horn sounded to end the fourth round, however, it was evident that Penn had nothing physically or emotionally left. As he leaned headfirst against the cage in exhaustion, an impromptu conference amongst his handlers on whether or not to continue became moot when the fight was stopped by Dean on advice from the ringside physician. There was no argument whatsoever from Penn or his entourage.

Displaying his characteristic class, GSP delayed his celebration until he had crossed the cage and kneeled by his vanquished foe to honor his competitive spirit. After a quick celebration among GSP and his team, he faced his next challenger in the person of Thiago Alves.

In the co-feature attraction, Lyoto Machida kept his undefeated professional MMA record intact with a first round TKO victory over Thiago Silva. Silva had no answer for Machidas well rounded skills and unorthodox Shotokan karate based style. Machida took his opponent down and knocked his opponent down twice”all counters as Silva was coming forward and Machida backing away. As the first round entered its final seconds, it appeared that Silva started to ease up in anticipation of the horn. Machida used this opportunity for another takedown, and then nailed his surprised opponent with a powerful punch that ended the fight.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Jake Delhomme struggled on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and was fortunate that his running backs bailed him out. Delhomme threw for only 65 yards with two interceptions, but D’Angelo Williams (152 yards) and Jonathan Stewart (110 yards) kept the chains moving as the Panthers won their second straight game defeating the Bucs 28-21. Tampa Bay has now lost ten straight dating back to last season and are 0-6 for the first time since’85. The fact that they ended up starting that year 0-9 on their way to a 1-15 record doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Carolina improved to 2-3 with the victory.

NFL sports bettors were faced with a choice between two teams with dismal ATS records in this game, and those who had the guts to take a 1-3 team as a -3 road favorite were rewarded with the cover. It was Carolina’s first NFL pointspread cover of the season and left them with a 1-4 record against the number. Tampa Bay has covered one of their six games this year. The 49 points scored went OVER the total of 40′.

Delhomme attempted only seven passes in the second half, but the way Williams and Stewart were running there was no reason to put the ball in the air. Williams said that even though Tampa Bay knew what was coming they couldn’t stop the Panthers’ running game:

“I’m sure everybody in the stadium knew what we were going to do. There were times they had nine in the box and we were still getting 7 or 8 yards.”

There’s been little impatience locally with Bucs’ rookie head coach Raheem Morris, but his weekly habit of explaining the obvious to rationalize yet another loss is starting to wear thin:

“We got overpowered at the end, and really throughout the game.”

Carolina safety Dante Wesley was ejected after clobbering Bucs’ return man Clifton Smith after a fair catch call. After the game, Wesley gave this defense for his actions:

“I was just trying to make a play. You can check my record. I’ve never really tried to hurt anybody. I’ve never tried to take a cheap shot on anybody.”

Wesley could face a possible fine or suspension from the NFL but, in all fairness, it did appear to be a momentary mental lapse as he was trying to make a big play and not a deliberate attempt to injure Smith.

Tampa’s schedule has the look of them going from ‘the frying pan into the fire’ as they host the New England Patriots next Sunday-fresh off of their 57 point drubbing of Tennessee. The Bucs are +14 home underdogs to the Patriots with the total set at 45. They’ll get a week off after that contest and return to action on November 8 as they host the Green Bay Packers. Carolina has an easier draw, hosting the Buffalo Bills next Sunday. The game is currently off the board pending the status of Bills’ QB Trent Edwards who suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win over the New York Jets. The Panthers will then play on the road the following two Sundays, traveling to Arizona and New Orleans.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Serious sports bettors often dismiss futures wagers as sucker bets targeted at ’squares’ looking for a big payoff. For example, a typical futures ’sucker bet’ would be something like betting that Harvard will win the NCAA basketball tournament at 500/1 odds. Sure, the potential payback is huge but here’s the problem–the “true odds” of Harvard winning the NCAA hoops tournament are astronomical, and certainly well in excess of 500/1. That means that from the outset this bet represents a poor wagering value.

Of more practical concern to the serious sports bettor is the necessity of tying up a portion of your wagering bankroll for a long period of time. Additionally, once you’ve placed a futures bet the outcome is still subject to the typical areas of concern for sports handicappers–injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc. It’s hard enough to stay on top of these variables on a day-to-day basis, and predicting them over the full season is downright impossible.

So futures plays have no relevance to a serious approach to sports handicapping? Not necessarily. It’s crucial to think of the sports betting discipline in terms of value. Used properly, futures wagers are frequently a good way of maximizing line value and finding overlay situations. Here are some ways in which future wagers can be successfully leveraged.

Futures can be a good way to leverage value on propositions where your knowledge is greater than the bookmaker’s. For example, many sports books offer betting propositions on entertainment oriented events like the Academy Awards. A handicapper who pays close attention to the movie industry and Hollywood news can stay one step ahead of the linesmaker.

With many books taking bets on awards like ‘Best Picture’ before nominations are even announced, a bettor has a great opportunity to find overlay situations. By staying on top of the entertainment news and accurately predicting which films will be nominated, its often possible to get substantially better prices than will be available after their announcement.

Making the Academy Awards an even better candidate for futures wagers is the nature of the film business itself. The release schedule for films is set well in advance, and after the year end cut off date no ’surprise’ releases can sneak in to consideration. At this point, its relatively easy to narrow down the serious contenders and with some work to come up with a ’short list’ of Oscar candidates.

Futures wagers are also effective for finding value in a sports betting paradigm. By its very nature, sports presents more variables to deal with than does the movie industry. The top teams are well known by both the linesmakers and general public, and seldom can be found at a value price. For example, you can already bet that the New England Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you can be sure that you’re not going to get a good value price on such a well known ‘public’ team.

The place to find value in this sort of proposition is to look at the less obvious teams. A few years ago an associate of mine took positions on several teams NHL that started slowly, including the Calgary Flames at 40/1. By the end of the regular season they were down to prices as low as 5/1 or 6/1.

This play wasnt based on any sort of certainty that this team would win the Stanley Cup, but rather on the value they presented. In other words, the true odds of this dark horse Cup win is more in the range of the current price so the 40/1 is a clear overlay. Once the playoffs begin, this sort of positional play offers a lot of options to hedge and to lock in a profit.

“The field” can occasionally offer wagering value as well. A good example was the NASCAR Rookie of the Year futures in 2001. Some books offered a bet on ‘the field’ at prices as high as 15/1. After Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death, his team turned to rookie Kevin Harvick to fill ‘The Intimidator’s’ place in the driver’s seat. Someone who followed NASCAR closely knew this was going to happen well before it was publicly announced, and was able to grab a great price on Harvick as part of ‘the field’. By midseason, Harvick’s success had pushed prices on ‘the field’ down to the point that it was the favorite everywhere with prices in the range of -250 to -300.

While this sort of situation is unique, there have been other situations where ‘the field’ presented good values. At one point, it wasn’t unusual to find a ‘field’ bet on NASCAR road races that included the road course specialists like Ron Fellows and Boris Said–meaning you could bet these ‘ringers’ and several others with one bet! Again, these opportunities don’t come around often but the value they present justifies paying close attention to them.

As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A little legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, travel and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf.

Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

In a competitive field, don’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the ‘true odds’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly ‘under the radar’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.

In more theoretical terms, the ‘true odds’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he’d essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It’s never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.

Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring.

Don’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the ‘true odds’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer who has written on sports betting and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared on TV and radio talking about boxing, hockey and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.